Global manufacturing started smoothly in 2019

According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing PMI in January 2019 rebounded slightly by 0.3 percentage points from last month to 52.4%. The rebound in US manufacturing and the stabilization of China's manufacturing industry have jointly led to a rebound in global manufacturing growth in January. The change in the index indicates that the global manufacturing industry has started relatively smoothly and maintained moderate and rapid growth.

From the index level, the global manufacturing PMI has run below 53% for two consecutive months, significantly lower than the annual average of 54.5% in 2018. The probability of global economic growth continuing to slow down is still large, or will shift from rapid growth. Moderately moderate growth.

In terms of regions, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded in January after a slight correction for two consecutive months. From the point of view of the sub-index, most of the indices rose steadily, indicating that the growth rate of supply and demand was relatively stable, the inventory of finished products continued to decrease, the price decline trend slowed down, and the manufacturing operation showed signs of stabilization. In particular, the production and sales of large-scale enterprises are better, and the vitality of high-tech industries is still strong, which provides an important basis for the stability of the manufacturing industry. From the perspective of investment, although the growth rate of global foreign direct investment has declined, the decline area is mainly concentrated in Europe and North America. Foreign direct investment in Asian developing economies has continued to grow, especially in East Asia and Southeast Asia, which is the region that absorbs the most foreign investment, indicating that Asia still has great potential for development.

In addition, in January 2019, the European manufacturing PMI fell by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month to 51%, hitting a new low in the past two years. From the trend of countries, the manufacturing PMI of most countries has declined to varying degrees. In particular, the German manufacturing industry, which is the European leader, has seen a significant decline. Its manufacturing PMI has fallen below 50% for the first time in four years. The change in the index indicates that the European manufacturing industry has continued to decline.

In January 2019, the manufacturing PMI of the Americas rebounded by 2.1 percentage points from the previous month to 55.8%, indicating that the manufacturing industry in the Americas still maintained a relatively fast growth trend. The sharp rebound in US manufacturing PMI is the main driver of the rapid growth of manufacturing in the Americas. From the index level, the current 55.8% index level is lower than the average of 57.7% in 2018, indicating that the recovery intensity of the American manufacturing industry has weakened compared to 2018.